QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/28/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/28/2006

It was indeed a nice rally last week. It was the best weekly percentage gain for the S&P 500 since November 2004. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 3.08%. The QQQQ gained 3.95%.

Long-term perspective: We think the monthly down trend that has broken long-term channel is not over yet, but might be close to a final stage. It should be followed by a mid-term rally, which could make a lower high to confirm a new long term down trend.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ does not oversold daily any more. Monthly downtrend resistance level is 38.59 and support - 35.80. Meanwhile SPY and DIA daily Lane's stochastic are overbought and both are close to the short-term downtrend resistance level. With overbought indicators we don't expect SPY and DIA current rally will last for long. QQQQ has been the weakest index recently.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/21/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/21/2006

Market indeed had a short-term rally as we suggested last week. In three days QQQQ gained 2.5% and then dropped back finishing the week with a 0.67% loss. DIA and SPY managed to close the week with a fractional gain.

Long-term perspective: We think the monthly down trend that has broken long-term channel is not over yet, but might be close to a final stage. It should be followed by a mid-term rally, which could make a lower high to confirm a new long term down trend.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: The last week rally was too short to reset technical indicators. QQQQ is still oversold in daily and weekly time frames and has the 'Downtrend Exhaustion' alert once again, while DIA and SPY are still far from oversold. QQQQ monthly downtrend support line is broken. The next support level for QQQQ is 34.35.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/14/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/14/2006

We have suggested in our long-term perspective that QQQQ is going to break the long-term channel support line. Finally last week our prediction was fulfilled and QQQQ broke down the support level 37.36 to end the week at 35.94. During the week QQQQ fell 4.7% percent. Nasdaq had the worst three-day decline since April 2005.

Long-term perspective: We consider that monthly down trend that has broken long-term channel is not over yet, but might be close to the final stage. The following rally should make a lower high to confirm the new long term down trend.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ is oversold in daily and weekly time frames and has the 'Downtrend Exhaustion' alert. It suggests that QQQQ is ready for a short-term rally or at least a consolidation period. On the other hand DIA and SPY are far from oversold. They may effect the QQQQ behavior and postpone the rally.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/7/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/7/2006

Last week our QQQQ trend analysis suggested that an "up trend from the June 13 is a channel with a support/resistance level at 37.42 / 39.14". So far this channel controls the QQQQ price movement. On Monday June 30, QQQQ reached the resistance level 39.14, turned down and closed the week at 37.69..

Long-term perspective: Our long-term perspective has not changed. Long-term QQQQ chart presents a channel started in mid 2003. QQQQ reached the support line on June 13. Some technical indicators and the trend analysis suggest that long-term uptrend might be completed and the long-term support line might me broken soon. We expected the rally to be short and QQQQ at least to retest the long-term support line again. That is exactly what we see now. Since last Thursday the rally has failed, QQQQ moved lower and closed on Friday at 37.69. The long-term trend support is now at 37.30 (± 0.66) level. In addition we would like to mention that DIA already has broken the long-term trend support (113.32) and SPY has pierced the support trend line (127.57). Unlike QQQQ they have daily William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic in overbought area.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ short-term weekly uptrend is the rising channel with support/resistance level 37.50 (± 0.15) / 39.22(± 0.15). The price is near the support level. Weekly oversold William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic may help QQQQ to rebound from the support line, but this rebound might be short and weak. If QQQQ breaks the 37.50 support level then we-ll have long-term support line at 37.30.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 6/30/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 6/30/2006

A week ago weekly William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic were both in oversold area. That made us suggest that the rally started on June 13 might not be over yet. Indeed, after a quiet week we had a nice rally on Thursday. QQQQ rose 2.63%, it s the biggest one-day point gain since May 2003. Finally QQQQ ends the week at 38.77.

Long-term perspective: Our long-term perspective has not change. Long-term QQQQ chart presents a channel started in mid 2003. QQQQ reached the support line on June 13. Some technical indicators and the trend analysis suggest that long-term uptrend might be complete and the long-term support line might me broken soon. We expect the current rally to be a short-term and QQQQ at least to retest the long-term support line again.

QQQQ - Monthly Trend

Short term perspective: QQQQ broke the short-term channel resistance line at 38.37 (± 0.17). Now the daily up trend from June 13 is promoted to a weekly up channel with support/resistance level at 37.42 / 39.14 (as of Friday June 30). In addition QQQQ has another resistance right above 40. Last week rally has also reset weekly oversold indicators and even move daily William's Percentage Range (W%R) in overbought area. The W%R is considered as an earliest signal among other technical indicators to indicate an impending reversal. So if the current short-term up trend continues, then all daily indicators will turn into overbought by the time QQQQ reaches the next resistance area at 40.

QQQQ - Weekly Trend

Summary: We consider that short-term QQQQ rally may continue up till next resistance level at 40 and then turn down to retest long-term support at 37.26 (as of Friday June 30). Chances are high that the next down wave might break this long-term support line.

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