The QQQQ downtrend resistance alert

The Stock Market Week - 3/28/2008

It was a mixed week for the major markets. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 144.92 points, or 1.17%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index dropped 14.29 points, or 1.07%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.07 points, or 0.14%. The QQQQ raised 0.93% for the week. The Materials sector was the strongest sector last week followed by the Energy sector. The Financial sector was the worst performing sector followed by the Consumer Discretionary sector. The Basic Materials is the most overvalued sector followed by Industrial Goods sector, while the Rental Leasing Services, Metals Fabrication and Railroads are among the most overvalued industries. Utilities is the most oversold sector followed by the Technology sector, while the Publishing - Periodicals, Dairy Products and Health Care Plans are among the most oversold industries.

Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) Trend Analysis

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: The QQQQ is in the final stage of the first long-term wave down that started on October 31 2007. Usually oversold long-term technical indicators and the spreading fear in the stock market characterize the final wave down in the long-term trend. The analysts' outlook for economy remains gloomy and mass media keeps spreading the fearful headlines. Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: Price is near the falling channel resistance. The channel resistance is usually stronger when appears with overbought technical indicators. Daily Lane's Stochastic is overbought. The QQQQ has the Downtrend resistance alert. This is a warning alert that a short-term rally is weakening and the reversal may appear soon.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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The QQQQ is near the falling channel resistance line

The Stock Market Week - 3/21/2008

It was an up week for the major markets. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 410.23 points, or 3.43%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index gained 41.37 points, or 3.21%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 45.62 points, or 2.06%. The QQQQ raised 1.99% for the week. The Financial sector was the strongest sector after the Federal Reserve interest rates cut last week. The Materials sector was the worst performing sector of the week followed by the Energy sector.

Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) Trend Analysis

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: The QQQQ is in the final stage of the first long-term wave down that started on October 31 2007. The wave is forming the five waves structure and the final fifth sub wave might be in progress now. Usually the final wave down in the long-term trend characterized by oversold long-term technical indicators and the spreading fear in the stock market. Weekly William's Percentage Range (W%R) and Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) are oversold. The analysts' outlook for economy is gloomy and mass media spreads the fearful headlines. The fear forces investors to sell falling stocks near the market bottom. The next wave down may occur during the summer and fall of 2008 and take the market much lower.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: ADaily technical indicators are neutral. The QQQQ current price 43.09 is near the falling channel resistance line (43.5 - 44.5). If resistance holds, the QQQQ may retest the recent low at 41.17.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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The Stock Market Week - 3/7/2008

All the major US indices were negative. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 372.70 points, or 3.04%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index dropped 37.26 points, or 2.80%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 58.99 points, or 2.60%. The Utilities sector was the strongest sector last week followed by the Consumer Staples sector. The Financial sector was the worst performing sector for the second week in a row followed by the Consumer Discretionary sector. The Basic Materials is the most overvalued sector for the forth week in a row while the Independent Oil Gas, Aluminum, and Oil Gas Drilling/Explor are among the most overvalued industries. Utilities is the most oversold sector followed by the Financial sector while the Publishing - Periodicals, Specialty Eateries, and Mortgage Investment are among the most oversold industries.

Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) Trend Analysis - 3/7/2008

It was a negative week for the QQQQ. The QQQQ lost 2.05% for the week.

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: The QQQQ is in the final stage of the first long-term wave down that started on October 31 2007. The wave is forming the five waves structure and the final fifth sub wave is in progress now. Usually the final wave down in the long-term trend characterized by oversold long-term technical indicators and the spreading fear in the stock market. Weekly William's Percentage Range (W%R) is strongly oversold and Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) is oversold. The analysts outlook for economy is gloomy and mass media spreads the fearful headlines: "Dangerous cracks in the nation's job market are deepening", "Employers slashed jobs by the largest amount in five years", "hundreds of thousands of people dropped out of the labor force", "recession bell is ringing". "The debate should no longer be about whether there is or is not a recession, only about how deep it will be" said Nigel Gault, chief economist at Global Insight. The fear forces investors to sell falling stocks near the market bottom. In the longer term the next wave down may occur during the summer and fall 2008 and take market much lower.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: As we have discussed before, the QQQQ has been forming the symmetric triangle pattern since Jan.23. The triangle is completed and the downside breakout occurred on March 3rd. According to the triangle measurement, the projected target price is around 49.5. Daily William's Percentage Range (W%R) is oversold.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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The QQQQ closed on Friday near the symmetric triangle support line

The Stock Market Week - 2/29/2008

All the major US indices were negative. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back 114.63 points, or 0.93%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index dropped 22.48 points, or 1.66%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 31.87 points, or 1.38. All sectors, except Energy, were negative this week while Financial sector was the worst performing sector of the week. The Energy remains the strongest sector for four weeks in a row. The Basic Materials is the most overvalued sector while the Utilities is the most oversold sector.

Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) Trend Analysis - 2/29/2008

The QQQQ had four-day rally at the beginning of the week, but lost 1.17 points, or more than 2.65%, on Friday - one of the worst days of 2008 so far. For the week the QQQQ gave back 1.67%.

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: Our long-term perspective has not changed. The QQQQ has turned down on October 31 2007 from the long-term rising channel resistance. The long-term uptrend is completed, and a first wave of a new long-term downtrend is in progress. Weekly William's Percentage Range (W%R) is oversold.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: The current down trend started on October 31 2007 at 55.07. A third sub wave was completed on Tuesday, Jan.23 when QQQQ has reached a long-term support area at 41.61. A fourth sub wave is in progress now and forming a symmetric triangle pattern.

QQQQ - Mid-Term Trend

As we have suggested last week, the Dragonfly Doji candlestick has marked the short-term trend reversal. The QQQQ has rallied from the symmetric triangle support line at 42.60 on 2/22/2008 to the resistance line at 44.53 on 2/28/2008. Then QQQQ price dropped sharply and closed on Friday near the support level once again. The mid-term downtrend resistance is near 45.5-46, while support is below 40.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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